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A chance encounter in the lobby of the National Press Club suggests that it's possible - not likely, but possible - that immigration reform could pass this year.

Prospects are grim because House Republicans seem dug in on their plan to fight illegal immigration, period, while the Senate wants to combine border and workplace enforcement with work permits and an opportunity for illegal immigrants to become legal residents and citizens.

The two sides seem to be a chasm apart. House conservatives are convinced that a hard line on immigration is necessary to turn out Republicans in the November elections and keep Congress in the GOP's control. And the Bush White House, GOP moderates and most Democrats - whether on principle or a desire to court the fast-growing Latino vote - insist on “comprehensive” reform that gives qualified illegal immigrants a chance to legalize their status. Conservatives denounce this as “amnesty” for lawbreakers.

Informal talks between the chambers are under way, with major input from the White House, but House conservatives are holding field hearings instead of conferencing with the Senate, and only five weeks remain on the legislative calendar between the end of the August recess and the time in October when members leave town to campaign.

Despite all this, there's a glimmer of hope. Leaving a press club event Tuesday on a nonimmigration matter - his proposal for a shield law for journalists - conservative Rep. Mike Pence, R-Ind., ran into two leading advocates of comprehensive reform, Frank Sharry of the National Immigration Forum and Tamar Jacoby of the Manhattan Institute.

Trading opinions, they seemed to narrow at least one gap, and Pence indicated that he thinks more convergence is possible.

Earlier in the day, Pence and Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, R-Texas, unveiled their new proposal designed to unify House and Senate Republicans. Their idea is to toughen border security and employer sanctions for a two-year period before other measures kick in. Then, illegal immigrant adults from Latin American countries would return home for a brief period, undergo background checks, obtain legal work visas at privately run “Ellis Island Centers” and be eligible to return to the United States for up to six two-year employment periods.

After 12 years, they and family members would be eligible for a new visa but not be eligible for social service benefits. Five years after that, they could stay in the United States on the “X-Change” visa, return home (and collect payroll taxes they'd paid) or apply for permanent residency (a “green card”) and be eligible for eventual citizenship.

Sharry and Jacoby, who favor the Bush/Senate approach, were at the National Press Club for their own event, releasing a new poll showing that 71 percent of likely voters support such a measure, including 73 percent of Republicans.

By 55 percent to 33 percent, according to the bipartisan Tarrance Group/Lake Research survey, voters prefer passing a bill this year that includes what critics deride as “amnesty” to passing no legislation at all.

At their event, Sharry and Jacoby declared the Pence-Hutchison proposal “a welcome initiative” and “an important opening gesture” that “could breathe new life into the debate.”

But, Sharry added, “We don't think it will work and it won't pass. For us, it's not good policy. It does not provide a path to citizenship for people who are here and those who will be coming.”

The “deal-breaker” for Jacoby was Pence-Hutchison's failure to increase the number of green cards available at the end of the road. Currently, U.S. law provides for only 1,500 green cards per year for low-skill immigrants, whereas an estimated 700,000 cross the border to work and 500,000 stay in the United States.

But during the conversation in the press club lobby, Pence said he favors a green-card expansion and indicated that he thought House GOP leaders and most rank-and-file Republicans would follow their leaders in supporting a phased-in comprehensive bill.

Even though conservative hard-liners have referred to his bill as offering “amnesty,” Pence said that “if you leave the country and get right with the law - if you, in effect, reboot - it's not amnesty if, 17 years later, you apply to be here permanently.”

He said he thought that, even though Republicans voted 203-17 in December for an enforcement-only immigration bill (one of which made being illegal a felony), only 20 to 30 of his colleagues would resist a properly constructed comprehensive bill.

And he indicated that a leading supposed hard-liner, House Judiciary Chairman Jim Sensenbrenner, R-Wis., might well support such a bill. As evidence, he cited Sensenbrenner's decision to lead opposition this month to an amendment by Rep. Steve King, R-Iowa, which would have lifted a Voting Rights Act requirement that election ballots be printed in languages other than English.

Pence quoted Sensenbrenner as telling him that “the Republican Party is against illegal immigration and not against legal immigration,” and inferred that Sensenbrenner might support green cards for “rebooted” illegal immigrants.

After listening to Pence, Sharry told me he thinks that Pence is “earnest and gutsy, but perhaps too optimistic,” especially in his prediction that hard-line opposition can be held to 20 to 30 Republicans.

“The prevailing consensus among House (Republicans) is that being tough on illegal immigration is a great base-turnout issue for the midterms and might just save them,” Sharry said. He also said that such a stance would be “a historic blunder in the long run” by alienating Latinos, a growing demographic group.

Moreover, he said, while “backroom discussions” are under way among Republicans, there are none yet involving Democrats, whose support would be necessary to pass a comprehensive bill, especially in the Senate.

Among Democrats, Sens. Edward Kennedy (Mass.) and Ken Salazar (Colo.) are eager for a deal - though Kennedy said he opposes Pence's bill - but other Democrats may prefer to see Republicans fail to deliver results on an issue they've elevated to the top of the nation's agenda.

“I'd say Pence's move and the White House commitment to a result ups the chances from about 10 percent to maybe 25 percent,” Sharry told me. “So, it's a big deal, but a big mountain to climb.”

As I said, there's a glimmer.

(Morton Kondracke is executive editor of Roll Call, the newspaper of Capitol Hill.)

Copyright 2006, Roll Call Newspaper

Distributed by Newspaper Enterprise Assn.

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Comments »

tonya adu wrote on Aug 14, 2006 6:54 PM:

" yes the president bush needs to make a way for immigrants this is their home to how can you tell some to go back here and they have family here childern i think this world is sick i dont think anyone knows the lord... please think about what is going on this world will come to end without immigrants "

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